Most acquisition calculators are built to make the deal look good. This one is built to find the reason it isn't.
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Debt service is covered with room to spare.
Drag it. Somewhere around a 20% loss this deal stops covering its own debt — and you personally guaranteed that note. Illustrative figures on a representative deal; the tool runs this on yours, alongside thirteen other risk flags.
That spreadsheet has one job: make the multiple look reasonable. It will not tell you that 55% of the leads come from the owner's personal relationships and walk out the door at close. It will not tell you that $175,000 of the EBITDA you're paying 3.9× for is add-backs a lender will discount to zero.
And it will not run the only scenario that actually matters — revenue drops 30% when the owner leaves; can this thing still service its debt?
That question is where capital-light buyers go bankrupt. Not at the closing table. Fourteen months later, on a Tuesday, when a DSCR of 0.94 becomes a missed payment on a note you personally guaranteed.
Every model resolves to one of three answers, driven by a fourteen-point risk scorecard. A tool that only ever says yes isn't a tool. It's a brochure.
Once on inertia — zero growth, no margin improvement, the business exactly as it sits. Once on your plan: your growth, your efficiencies, your thesis. Then it shows the delta line by line. Now you know what you're buying versus what you'd be building — and you stop paying the seller for work you haven't done yet.
| As-is | Your plan | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit EBITDA | $280,000 | $405,219 |
| Exit equity | $1.06M | $1.66M |
| MOIC | 5.95× | 9.21× |
$595,171 of that equity is your work, not the seller's — so don't pay for it twice. These are the shipped example's figures at ~86% leverage, which is precisely the exposure the stress test above is built to find.
Roughly sixty inputs, every one carrying a plain-English note on what it is and why it matters — written the way a seasoned buyer would say it, not the way a textbook would.
You will finish your first model understanding the deal. That is the actual product; the calculator is just how it gets delivered.
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Model your first real deal with it. If it doesn't change how you see that deal, email me inside 14 days — full refund, and you keep the files. I'd rather have the feedback than the $297.
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